Here we go.. The fade is on..
indiancowboy
4 Unit Play. Take Over 11 between Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (Tuesday @ 8pm est). I had already considered making this a Pod yesterday prior to the game finishing between these two teams. We have cashed on or against the Orioles and Rangers consistently this year including the winner on the O's yesterday as +115 dog. Regardless of who wins today, these two offenses put up 19 runs on the board yesterday and the pitchers today are no better than the two that took the mound yesterday. For starters, Simon is a young kid that had a 7+ era in his first outing and he faces a very good hitting team in the Rangers, in a hitter's ballpark, who come off 9-10 loss and who are itching to snap a losing streak they are currently on. On top of that, the Orioles face McCarthy who had a 5.4 era against an Indians team that is not playing well right now and struggled to pick up the win against them while walking 4 and even hitting a batter. The Orioles will not be as kind with McCarthy as they are likely to enjoy hitting in Texas just as much as they put up 10 runs on Padilla yesterday. Look for the Rangers on the bounce-back to hit Simon well, and the Orioles to hit McCarthy well who was fortunate against the Indians to get by with his control problems, but will likely not be as fortunate today. The over is 5-0 for the Rangers when they are an Underdog by this margin and the Over is 4-0 in the last 4 home games for the Rangers.
2 Unit Play. Take the Kansas City Royals RL +140 over the Cleveland Indians (Tuesday @ 8pm est). I'm not a huge fan of the RL, but we did use it for our 5* GOTW on Sunday with the Rays over the Orioles. A similar situation applies today as Davies was lights out against the Whitesox as he didn't yield a run to this team but did not pick up a win. Davies returns home to face an Indians team that although he has a 1-3 mark against, he was 1-0 against them last year. KC has been great for Davies as he has left a bit of the pressure in Atlanta and thrived in late September and looks to continue thriving after a strong scoreless first start against the Sox. The Indians lineup has not done well in the early start of the season as they are just 1-6 and although this game might be high scoring as the Indians look to give Pavano some help, Davies clearly has his stuff together as compared to Carl, who had an 81 era in his first start. Although Pavano will look better in this outing, I question how drastically an individually could have gotten better over the span of 1 start. I still believe although Pavano will not have a 81 era start, he is likely to give up about 4-5 runs in the span of 5 innings and Davies will hold the fort down. I think at +140, this is good value to take for a 2 unit wager and we will continue to make mini-plays of 2 units every now and then if we can feel like we can pad the bankroll with an additional win. It's a long season, so over the long haul it will be worth it for us. Let's take the stronger pitcher and currently the stronger team in the Royals who are 4-3 and are solid at home while the Indians continue to struggle to find an identity as they are not pitching, nor hitting well currently.
4 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia -4 over the Boston Celtics (Tuesday @ 8pm est). There is a limited number of games on the docket today, but we will take the Sixers at home against the C's. Boston has the #2 seed in the East either way and Garnett will not play. Allen is Questionable and in fact, Doc Rivers rest his starters today. Remember, Philly lost to this team by 1 point last time at home 99-100 and come off five straight losses including a loss to Toronto on the road. Obviously Philly will look to bounce-back, have some revenge, and have their starters on the floor so this game is far more important for them in many ways than Boston. The Celtics do come off an embarrassing loss to the Cavs on the road, but then again, I don't think that loss really means anything to this team, as they have already clinched and even after that loss, they plan on resting essentially everybody today to give some of their young guys some playing time. There is a similar case in Atlanta today where the Heat reserves will likely play against the Hawks as Moon, Wade and O'Neal are likely to rest. But, rather than laying that 9, we will lay the 4 here with Philly who also comes off a series of losses and has revenge here.
